How to Pick a Grand National Winner

The question of how to pick a Grand National winner is one that many horse racing fans will be asking themselves when the Irish Grand National takes place at Fairyhouse. The same question will be asked again in the lead-up to the Aintree Grand National. So what’s the answer? Read on and your Grand National betting this year could be profitable...

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The short answer is that there is no short answer. Picking winners in the Grand National races at Fairyhouse and Aintree is notoriously difficult for a number of reasons, the most obvious of which are the big fields, challenging courses and the fact that plenty of runners don’t even make it all the way to the finish line.

Of course, just because picking the winner of a particular race tends to be difficult is no reason to approach the event as if it were a lottery. Here then, are our far more sensible tips on how to maximise your chances of picking a Grand National winner…

1 – Create a Shortlist
Instead of trying to identify a single selection, start by creating a shortlist of horses that you think have a good chance of winning (or making the frame if you intend to bet each-way). This will help you to eliminate many of the runners and allow you focus on paring down your shortlist afterwards.

2 – Look at the Form
Although form tends to be less reliable in a Grand Nation than it is in smaller races, it can still help you to narrow your options down to several runners. As well as looking for horses that have recent winning form, also look at the way they have handled the current going conditions in the past. For example, if the going is described as heavy you probably wouldn’t want to bet on any horse that has previously demonstrated a clear inability to handle heavy going.

3 – Look at the Market
Big priced winners are more common in Grand National races than in modest events which have a dozen or fewer runners, but you can still use the sports betting markets as a guide to how the bookies have evaluated the chances of each horse taking part. We would suggest giving more serious consideration to the horses that are more modestly priced rather than trying to pick a 200/1 outsider. Of course, if your examination of the form has highlighted a horse that you think is overpriced, you should feel free to include it on your shortlist.

4 – Consider the Pilot
The role of jockeys in any race should never be underestimated, and in a Grand National you want to be confident that the jockey on board your selection is capable of getting the best possible performance from it. In short, this isn’t the time to take risks on unproven jockeys or on those that you don’t fancy to ride a winner.

5 – Review the Shortlist
When you have created a shortlist of possible selections, you need to review it so that you can identify your favourites. Backing several horses in a Grand National race can be a good way to increase your chances of finding the winner, so take a look at the odds available about each shortlisted runner and see how many of your shortlisted selections you might be able to back profitably. For example, if you have eight horses on your shortlist and you can get sports betting odds of 10/1 or better about all of them, you could feasibly back all eight, take the prices available and be sure of an overall profit if any one of them wins. Bet each way and you might even get several of your shortlisted selections in the frame!

Make no mistake, you will always need a decent amount of luck in running to pick a winner in a Grand National race, but the tips provided here should certainly improve your chances. The important thing is to enjoy the spectacle as much as the winning, so have fun and we wish you the best of luck!

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